Opportunity win probability

Predicted probability of winning a pipeline opportunity.

Part of Opportunities in the register catalog.

Register ID

opportunity_win_probabilityUse this name to ask for the register. The API calls it a shelf ID.

Each record is

An eventSomething that happened at a point in time.

Status

DeclaredDefined, and fills when a source produces its first record.

Data

OrganisationPrivate to each organisation's own workspace.

Version

v1Current version.

Download JSON SchemaSee an example record

Connectors

Connected today

Demiton keeps this register current from these systems now.

No system fills this register yet.

On the roadmap

Systems in the planned connector rollout that can fill this register. Partial means the system holds only some of its fields.

None planned yet.

Fields

14 fields: 9 required, 5 optional.

Required

Every record carries these fields.

p_winNumberUnit: probability 0–1

Model-issued probability that the referenced pursuit is won. The shelf's only measure, already declared PREDICTIVE/float/probability.

Example: 0.62

model_versionText

Version tag of the issuing model.

Example: win_probability_v1

subject_opportunity_refText

Stable identifier of the scored pursuit.

Example: opp:ITT242-caloundra-transport-corridor

training_as_ofDate and timeISO 8601, with time zoneUnit: UTC

The transaction-time cutoff the model was trained to; the label set is only decided opportunities known at this instant.

Example: 2026-08-01T00:00:00Z

n_training_rowsWhole numberUnit: count

Decided (won/lost) opportunities the fit used; MIN_TRAINING_ROWS = 5 gates whether any prediction is emitted.

Example: 24

n_winsWhole numberUnit: count

Positive-class examples in the fit.

Example: 9

n_lossesWhole numberUnit: count

Negative-class examples in the fit.

Example: 15

scored_atDate and timeISO 8601, with time zoneUnit: UTC

When this prediction was produced.

Example: 2026-08-15T04:00:00Z

currencyText

Currency the scored pursuit is denominated in; today stamped "AUD" unconditionally by the producer.

Example: AUD

Optional

Present when the source system records them.

customerText

The customer the pursuit is for, where one exists.

Example: Sunshine Coast Council

feature_valuesGroup of fields

The five bounded feature inputs to the score: value_band (0–4), has_customer, work_type_known, sales_cycle_known, log_value.

valid_untilDate and timeISO 8601, with time zoneUnit: UTC

Until when this prediction is the current one for its pursuit.

brier_scoreNumberUnit: unitless (lower better)

Calibration error of the fit that issued these predictions, when a backtest was run.

Example: 0.17

accuracyNumberUnit: fraction 0–1

Share of held-out decided opportunities classified correctly at the 0.5 threshold.

Example: 0.79

Example record

A sample from Bridgeworks Group, Demiton's demonstration company. The values are illustrative; the shape is exactly what the contract describes.

opportunity_win_probability.example.json

{
  "accuracy": 0.79,
  "brier_score": 0.17,
  "currency": "AUD",
  "customer": "Sunshine Coast Council",
  "feature_values": {
    "has_customer": true,
    "log_value": 13.8,
    "sales_cycle_known": true,
    "value_band": 2,
    "work_type_known": true
  },
  "model_version": "win_probability_v1",
  "n_losses": 15,
  "n_training_rows": 24,
  "n_wins": 9,
  "p_win": 0.62,
  "scored_at": "2026-08-15T04:00:00Z",
  "subject_opportunity_ref": "opp:ITT242-caloundra-transport-corridor",
  "training_as_of": "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z"
}

Use this contract

The contract is a standard JSON Schema (draft 2020-12) document, so any JSON Schema validator can check a record against it. Keywords starting with x-demiton- add Demiton's own meaning, such as units and requiredness, and validators ignore them.

Schema URL

https://docs.demiton.io/registers/opportunity_win_probability/v1.json

Show the full JSON Schema

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